Service 3

Horizon-1

Continuous physiological simulation

Version

2026.04.2

Retrained

2026-03-29

Status

healthy

Performance

Key metrics

Calibration & discrimination against the engine's published target. Under-target values are highlighted.

Calibration (Brier)

0.089target 0.100

1y AUC (decompensation)

0.862target 0.850

5y AUC (MACE)

0.814target 0.800

Coverage (axes)

92.0%target 90%

14-day inference volume

1,386 in the last 24h · avg latency 214 ms

Metrics are tracked on held-out evaluation cohorts; values here reflect the last retrain.

Model

Training basis & runtime

Transparent about what the engine was trained on and how it behaves in production.

Model family

Mixture-of-axes neural ODE ensemble

Trained on

115,489 patients · 412M datapoints

Active trajectories

2,841

Mean confidence

27 / 40

across the practice

Avg rebuild latency

214 ms

Projection horizon

10y

History

Changelog

Each retrain is documented; clinicians can see what changed and when.

2026.04.22026-03-29
Added ApoB and Lp(a) into the lipid sub-manifold; retrained on expanded cohort.
2026.01.02026-01-11
Introduced MASLD sub-manifold; FIB-4 and liver-fat surrogate axes.
2025.10.12025-10-08
Calibration improved on elderly cohort after adding frailty adjuster.

Safety

Guardrails

Hard limits and runtime checks the engine enforces.

Never emits a projection past 10 years.
Blocks rendering when observational confidence <15/40.
Uncertainty bands widen automatically as data sparsifies.

Observability

Recent incidents & retrains

Automatic monitoring — warn / critical thresholds on calibration, drift, and latency.

Nightly retrain completedinfoHorizon-116/04/2026, 04:12
Horizon-1 2026.04.2 retrain completed in 38 minutes · 412M datapoints · calibration within tolerance.

All engines